Webjet group valuation analysis fy26

Webjet Group Limited (ASX: WJL) is the demerged consumer-facing travel entity, distinct from Web Travel Group Limited (ASX: WEB) which operates the WebBeds B2B business Verified Answer #1. The central estimate for the fair value of Webjet Group is A$0.52 per share Verified Answer #1. A reasonable valuation range for the company is approximately A$0.46 to A$0.59 based on conventional discount-rate and terminal-growth sensitivities Verified Answer #1. Under broader operational scenarios, the valuation range extends from a bear case of A$0.30 to a bull case of approximately A$0.79 Verified Answer #1.

As of 20 July 2026, the market close price was A$0.395, which implies an upside of approximately 32% relative to the central fair value estimate Verified Answer #1. While the stock appears undervalued, it is considered speculative due to several factors Verified Answer #1. The company's cash balance offers downside protection, but the headline FY26 EV/EBITDA multiple may overstate the value because FY26 EBITDA included unusually high variable revenue Verified Answer #1.

Management has not provided quantitative EBITDA guidance for FY27 and has warned that the period will be materially affected by structural headwinds Verified Answer #1. These headwinds include lower airline commissions, changes to payment surcharging, and lower variable revenue Verified Answer #1. Additionally, the company must maintain heavy spending on capitalized technology Verified Answer #1.

The FY26 financial results, covering the year ended 31 March 2026, were released on 20 May 2026 Verified Answer #1. Financial comparatives for FY25 were retrospectively revised to account for changes in gift-card breakage recognition, which is now only recognized upon expiration Verified Answer #1. This accounting change reduced the revised FY25 revenue and EBITDA by A$4.4 million but did not impact cash Verified Answer #1.