Us china tariff forecasts 2026

US-China Tariff Forecasts 2026

As of May 2026, the trade-weighted average tariff rate on imports from China to the United States is approximately 30.0% Verified Answer #1. This follows a peak rate of roughly 47.5% recorded in late 2025 Verified Answer #1. The rate declined significantly in February 2026 after the US Supreme Court invalidated tariffs that had been imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) Verified Answer #1. By early second quarter of 2026, estimates placed the effective tariff rate between 29.6% and 29.7% Verified Answer #1.

Factors Influencing H2 2026 Projections

Several factors are projected to increase the trade-weighted average tariff rate above 30.0% during the second half of 2026 Verified Answer #1:

• The Trump administration intends to use Section 301 and Section 232 authorities to replicate the previous IEEPA regime Verified Answer #1.
• An ongoing Section 301 investigation into industrial overcapacity is expected to conclude in the second half of 2026, likely leading to new duties Verified Answer #1.
• A temporary 10% Section 122 surcharge is scheduled to expire on July 24, 2026, and is expected to be replaced by higher, permanent duties under the "America First" policy framework Verified Answer #1.
• Scheduled Biden-era Section 301 increases for 2026 include a 100% rate on medical gloves and a 25% rate on non-EV lithium-ion batteries Verified Answer #1.
• The use of fixed 2024 trade weights in methodology prevents the average rate from being lowered by the natural suppression of trade in high-tariff goods Verified Answer #1.

While a summit between Trump and Xi is scheduled for May 14-15, 2026, analysts expect the meeting to focus on purchase commitments rather than broad tariff reductions Verified Answer #1.