Peru presidential election 2026 forecasts

The 2026 Peruvian presidential runoff features Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez in a highly competitive race Verified Answer #2. Fujimori is competing in her fourth consecutive second-round election, having narrowly lost the previous three in 2011, 2016, and 2021 Verified Answer #1. Historically, her opponents have won by consolidating an "anti-fujimorista" coalition in the final stage of the election Verified Answer #2.

Polling and Projections

Recent data indicates the race is a statistical tie Verified Answer #1.

Candidate Dynamics

Fujimori’s "anti-vote," or the percentage of voters who would never support her, dropped from 59% to 48% in April 2026 Verified Answer #2. This is her strongest starting position in a runoff to date Verified Answer #2. Conversely, Sánchez’s anti-vote increased to 43% by late April Verified Answer #1.

Sánchez maintains strong support in rural regions and the Andean south, appealing to those seeking a protest vote against the establishment in Lima Verified Answer #2. However, his previous role as a minister under ousted President Pedro Castillo has created a political ceiling among centrist and urban voters Verified Answer #2. Fujimori continues to hold a significant advantage in Lima and among conservative urban demographics Verified Answer #1.

Market Forecasts and Uncertainty

Despite the close polling, prediction markets favor a Fujimori victory Verified Answer #2. As of mid-May 2026, Kalshi priced her probability of winning at 64%, while Polymarket placed her odds between 63% and 66% Verified Answer #2.

The electorate remains volatile, with 17% to 24% of voters intending to cast blank or null ballots or remaining undecided Verified Answer #1. A "polling blackout" has also emerged as pollsters are reluctant to publish figures in the current polarized environment Verified Answer #2. Final results are expected to depend heavily on late-breaking protest votes and turnout in rural areas Verified Answer #1.