Highest grossing film 2026 forecasts

Forecasts for the highest-grossing film of 2026 indicate that Spider-Man: Brand New Day is the current frontrunner Verified Answer #1. Historical data supports the high ceiling for this franchise, as the 2021 installment Spider-Man: No Way Home grossed $1.92 billion worldwide Verified Answer #1. As of mid-May 2026, prediction market traders assign Spider-Man: Brand New Day an implied probability of 70% to 77% of securing the top spot for the year Verified Answer #1.

Leading Contenders

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

The film's market position is bolstered by record-breaking interest, with its initial trailer doubling the 24-hour viewership record previously set by No Way Home Verified Answer #1. Analysts point to its July 31, 2026, release date as a strategic advantage, providing a long, uninterrupted window to accumulate global box office returns Verified Answer #1.

Avengers: Doomsday

Despite the historical success of the Avengers franchise, which saw Avengers: Endgame gross $2.79 billion in 2019, Avengers: Doomsday trails in 2026 forecasts Verified Answer #1. Prediction markets place its probability of being the highest-grossing film at 12% to 16% Verified Answer #1. While the return of Robert Downey Jr. is considered a major draw, the film faces significant competition due to its December 18, 2026, release date Verified Answer #1. It is scheduled to open the same day as Dune: Part Three, a conflict referred to as "Dunesday" that may limit its access to premium large format (IMAX) screens Verified Answer #1.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Forecasts for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie have declined as of mid-May 2026 Verified Answer #1. Current data from prediction markets suggests a 5% to 8% probability of it becoming the highest-grossing film of the year Verified Answer #1.