Global temperature forecasts 2026

Temperature Projections for 2026

The global average temperature for 2026 is expected to be influenced by a developing El Niño event Verified Answer #1. As of May 2026, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center reports an 82% probability of El Niño emerging between May and July Verified Answer #1. Because atmospheric responses typically lag ocean surface warming by several months, the full warming impact of this cycle is expected to manifest in 2027 rather than 2026 Verified Answer #1.

Expert and Institutional Forecasts

Multiple organizations and researchers have provided specific temperature estimates for 2026 Verified Answer #1.

• The UK Met Office predicts a global average temperature of 1.46°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, with a 95% confidence range between 1.34°C and 1.58°C Verified Answer #1.
• Climate researcher Zeke Hausfather estimates the 2026 multi-dataset average will be approximately 1.41°C Verified Answer #1.
• Based on historical El Niño onset years and background warming of 0.02°C to 0.03°C per year, the NASA GISS anomaly for 2026 is expected to be in the low 1.40s Verified Answer #1.

Dataset Variations and Historical Context

The NASA GISS dataset historically records lower anomalies compared to other datasets like Copernicus ERA5 Verified Answer #1. For example, in 2024, the WMO consolidated average was 1.55°C while the GISS anomaly was 1.47°C Verified Answer #1. This structural bias provides a buffer of 0.05°C to 0.08°C against the multi-dataset consensus, making it likely that the GISS anomaly will remain below 1.50°C in 2026 Verified Answer #1. In 2025, global temperatures cooled to approximately 1.38°C above the pre-industrial baseline Verified Answer #1.