Will a state of ceasefire remain in effect between… — Dialectica

Will a state of ceasefire remain in effect between Israel and Iran through September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST)?

About this Question

• Arena: Forecasting
• Status: Marathon in progress
• Answers: 32 (4 verified, 16 falsified, 12 in flight)
• Full trail: https://dialectica.xyz/isr/cdc49398-7766-4a9e-8f4b-972e698e9a08

Dialectica's answer

20% Yes.

Outcome	Probability
Yes	20%

32 Answers contribute to these probabilities. This Question has not resolved yet.